Friday, September 29, 2006

Same Price. But will Zune's Features win against iPod's Experience?

American Technology Research Analyst, Shaw Wu has commented that Zune, the new media player from Microsoft (MSFT) will hurt Microsoft and it's partners more than it will hurt Apple (AAPL) or it's iPod. Though the price tag for Zune, $249.99 is similar to a comparable iPod's price, Wu thinks that it will be difficult to convert iPod users to Zune. Wu also estimates that Microsoft will lose $50 for every Zune it sells. Wu's sources indicate that Microsoft did not expect Apple to lower prices of its iPods. This move had surprised Microsoft and had forced it to reduce pricing to match Apple's. Wu also commented on the superior supply chain and operating efficiency of Apple which is highly invisible. This probably has given Apple the edge over the new Zune threat by allowing Apple to lower the iPod prices. In this price range, Apple still makes profits while Microsoft loses money.

While many people cite Microsoft's success with Xbox, it is a completely different game than media players. Media players have small form factors and a lot of content to navigate. I repeat NAVIGATE. This is the key to iPod's success. The click wheel makes combing through a vast library of media easy. Whereas in Zune, one has to scroll through the library individually, making it difficult to move around. Zune's user interface, based on Windows will not provide a good experience. In the initial comparisons, Zune seems to have a lesser battery life than iPod, which is again a let down. The wireless or WiFi feature that allows networking and sharing is a novel concept. But you should enough Zune users around you to share with. Connecting to a wireless network and allowing other people to communicate with your device is a cumbersome process, a drain on the battery and not to mention issues associated with hacking or viruses. While you are waiting at a traffic signal or traveling in a train, you dont want anyone to hack into your player and erase all your music. Security is a key feature that not many people are talking about and we probably will wait for more information to be revealed. Zune has a bigger screen than the iPod. Well is this really an advantage or a disadvantage? If you want to watch videos it is good but if you just want to listen to music, then you probably will not need this big a screen. So the overall user experience of Zune may not stand up to iPod's user experience. There is also the question of how Zune's Marketplace with stack up with the iTunes Store. There is one area where Microsoft has the edge, gaming. If Microsoft is capable of somehow incorporating games into Zune and allowing a network of users to play games, it has a chance to get into a territory that Apple is weak in. This is understandable with Zune's screen size and wireless capability. But the current design of Zune is not game-friendly.

There are many products which have been successful in the past because of their user experience even though they had lesser features than their competitors. Zune with more features is simply not enough to challenge the iPod. It needs to be seen how long Microsoft can lose money, churn out new 'Zunes' and market its features and brand to gain an edge over Apple.

Wu also estimates that, Apple has 18-22% gross margin and 8-11% operating margin. So Microsoft will not only have to overcome Apple's prolific innovations and designs but has to atleast match Apple's operating efficiency to kill the iPod.

On a sidenote, another effect of Microsoft's foray into the media player business is antagonizing some of its partners. Since Microsoft has the upper hand on its partners now, it is not an issue. But Microsoft may feel the heat later on when it may need their help.

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Thursday, December 30, 2004

Battery technologies

Batteries are a nuisance in most of the gadgets we use – like PDA, Mobiles, Laptops, etc. Connect wires between oppositely charged terminals. This initiates an electrochemical reaction and electrons will be moving from negative to positive. If there is a device in between, it will be powered. This is the working principle of the battery since Alessandro Volta showed it to the world sometime during 1800s. Most of the alkaline batteries are of no use to these gadgets since the power generated from them is too low. So the Li-ion rechargeable batteries with a superior energy density are being used. Even this is not enough. One alternative is to find a method to ‘quick’ recharge the batteries. There are a number of other strategies that researchers are focusing on – like decreasing the battery size and increasing the number of batteries for efficient supply of energy only when needed and also tweaking with component materials that could provide a better energy density.

Apart from the research community the industry is not doing much to address this issue. If all the batteries that come in most of the gadgets are Li-ion, why do they have different standards, sizes, shapes? Duracell tried to standardize the laptop battery market. But the manufacturers found that it is easier to make more money with different battery types.

So what is the alternative? It would take atleast five years to bring out new batteries out in the market. Some people suggest fuel cells. Portable fuel cells. The problem is they are costly since they use costlier metals like platinum. So till they come up with these, pack up your backup batteries.

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Monday, October 18, 2004

Bluetooth & RFID - Notes

Bluetooth is an open-source standard for connecting devices without wires via short-wave radio frequencies. Bluetooth is a short-wave standard, with most development concentrated on connecting devices within a radius of 10 meters, or roughly 30 feet – in tech terms, a PAN, or personal area network.

The most "hotly contested" Bluetooth segment is the semiconductor market which last year began moving into second-generation solutions with developers also ramping up for volume production. The result was "fiercer competitive forces driving strong performance," a trend that will continue to spur consolidation. Frost & Sullivan projects that consolidation will lead to the emergence of " no more than 10 key players" in the sector. Also driving the Bluetooth success story: advances in single-chip RF technology, a solution that is geared toward the cellular phone market.

Among the applications garnering increased Bluetooth attention: "human interface" devices, such as keyboard, mouse, games controllers, and desktop peripherals, including printers and digital cameras.

"All are perceived as potential high volume areas for market development," according to the report, which adds that "improvements in the robustness of chipsets to conditions such as heat and light is allowing further investigation in automotive and industrial environments."

A thriving environment of supporting products and services has emerged around the main semiconductor market, with design services, protocol software vendors and intellectual property developers all making major contributions to the growth of the market.

Radio frequency identification (RFID) is a method of remotely storing and retrieving data using devices called RFID tags. An RFID tag is a small object, such as an adhesive sticker, that can be attached to or incorporated into a product. RFID tags contain antennae to enable them to receive and respond to radio-frequency queries from an RFID transceiver

RFID tags can be either active or passive. Passive RFID tags do not have their own power supply: the minute electrical current induced in the antenna by the incoming radio-frequency scan provides enough power for the tag to send a response. Due to power and cost concerns, the response of a passive RFID tag is necessarily brief, typically just an ID number (GUID). Lack of its own power supply makes the device quite small: commercially available products exist that can be embedded under the skin. As of 2004, the smallest such devices commercially available measured 0.4 mm × 0.4 mm, and thinner than a sheet of paper; such devices are practically invisible. Passive tags have practical read ranges that vary from about 10 mm up to about 5 metres.

Active RFID tags, on the other hand, must have a power source, and may have longer ranges and larger memories than passive tags, as well as the ability to store additional information sent by the transceiver. At present, the smallest active tags are about the size of a coin. Many active tags have practical ranges of tens of metres, and a battery life of up to several years.

As passive tags are much cheaper to manufacture, the vast majority of RFID tags in existence are of the passive variety. As of 2004 tags cost from $0.25. The aim is to produce tags for less than $0.05 to make widespread RFID tagging commercially viable.

There are four different kinds of tags commonly in use, their differences based on the level of their radio frequency: Low frequency tags (between 125 to 134 kilohertz), High frequency tags (13.56 megahertz), UHF tags (868 to 956 megahertz), and Microwave tags (2.45 gigahertz).
See also for some Transponder devices which deliver a similar function, and contactless chipcards.

High-frequency RFID tags are used in library book or bookstore tracking, pallet tracking, building access control, airline baggage tracking, and apparel item tracking. High-frequency tags are widely used in identification badges, replacing earlier magnetic stripe cards. These badges need only be held within a certain distance of the reader to authenticate the holder.

RFID tags are often envisioned as a replacement for UPC or EAN bar-codes, having a number of important advantages over the older bar-code technology. RFID codes are long enough that every RFID tag may have a unique code, while UPC codes are limited to a single code for all instances of a particular product. The uniqueness of RFID tags means that a product may be individually tracked as it moves from location to location, finally ending up in the consumer's hands. This may help companies to combat theft and other forms of product loss. It has also been proposed to use RFID for point-of-sale store checkout to replace the cashier with an automatic system, with the option of erasing all RFID tags at checkout and paying by credit card or inserting money into a payment machine. This has to a limited extent already been implemented at some stores
(http://www.ncr.com/repository/articles/pdf/sa_selfcheckout_integratedsolutions.pdf).

An organization called EPCglobal is working on a proposed international standard for the use of RFID and the Electronic Product Code (EPC) in the identification of any item in the supply chain for companies in any industry, anywhere in the world. The organization's board of governors includes representatives from EAN International, Uniform Code Council, The Gillette Company, Procter & Gamble, Wal-Mart, Hewlett-Packard, Johnson & Johnson, and Auto-ID Labs.

In July 2004, the Food and Drug Administration issued a ruling that essentially begins a final review process that will determine whether hospitals can use RFID systems to identify patients and/or permit relevant hospital staff to access medical records.

Many somewhat far-fetched uses, such as allowing a refrigerator to track the expiration dates of the food it contains, have also been proposed, but few have moved beyond the prototype stage.
The use of RFID technology has engendered considerable controversy and even product boycotts. The four main privacy concerns regarding RFID are:

  1. The purchaser of an item will not necessarily be aware of the presence of the tag or be able to remove it;
  2. The tag can be read at a distance without the knowledge of the individual;
  3. If a tagged item is paid for by credit card or in conjunction with use of a loyalty card, then it would be possible to tie the unique ID of that item to the identity of the purchaser; and
  4. Tags create, or are proposed to create, globally unique serial numbers for all products, even though this creates privacy problems and is completely unnecessary for most applications.

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